How to Avoid a Climate Disaster

This article is a short summary of Bill Gates latest book “How to Avoid a Climate Disaster”. The book provides a clear top-down overview and framework for this difficult task.

1. There is a difference between reducing emissions and going to a net zero-emissions economy. The latter being a balanced system that absorbs the produced carbon without increasing global warming.

2. We need to deploy the tools we already have, such as solar and wind, faster and smarter.

3. We need to create and deploy breakthrough technologies that can take us the rest of the way.

These simple guidance questions help frame the problem:

• How much of the 51bn tonnes of carbon a year are we talking about?

• How much greenhouse gas is emitted by the different activities we do?

  • Making things (cement, steel, plastic) 31%

  • Plugging in (electricity) 27%

  • Growing things (plants, animals) 19%

  • Getting around (planes, trucks, cargo, ships) 16%

  • Keeping warm and cool (heating, cooling, refrigeration) 7%

We need wins in all areas, from less carbon-intense cement to plant-based foods. Electrification and renewable electricity play a huge part in connecting various sectors. One clear conclusion is that we need more renewables, more energy storage and a better grid system than we think. Making significant grid improvements might appear to save less carbon in the short-term than replacing coal with gas for example, but it will allow us to get on the path to net zero in the long run. We need the right long-term investments now.

The right long-term investments might not be very attractive now for a market-based system that has a medium-term profit horizon. Therefore, we need:

• Long-term government funding and research in clean energy and carbon reduction technologies. We need it for potential breakthroughs à la ARPANET, a military-funded research project which led to the internet. Gates lists the following potential breakthroughs:

  • Hydrogen produced without emitting carbon

  • Seasonal grid-scale electricity storage

  • Electrofuels

  • Advanced biofuels

  • Zero-carbon cement

  • Zero-carbon steel

  • Plant- and cell-based meat and dairy

  • Next-generation nuclear

  • Nuclear fusion

  • Carbon capture (both direct air capture and point capture)

  • Underground electricity transmission

  • Zero-carbon plastics

  • Geothermal energy

  • Pumped hydro

  • Thermal storage

  • Drought- and flood-tolerant food crops

  • Zero-carbon alternative to palm oil

  • Coolants that do not contain F-gases, a group of powerful greenhouse gases

We may not agree with the entire list, but many are key and we could extend the list with a few more. The main takeaway is that we need technology breakthroughs to get to zero emissions and we need not be afraid of trying and failing in multiple areas.

• Put a price on carbon, give the market an incentive and reduce what Gates calls “Green Premiums” more details here.

• Policy incentives. The whole renewable energy industry is founded on government incentives, such as the Feed-in-Tariff system in Germany for renewable energy introduced in 2000. We may need a similar incentive for grid investments. It should be noted that the pure “market-based system” never was a reality, as the fossil fuel industry was and still is heavily subsidised.

He concludes with what each of us can do. A key point is that politics matter, both at local and national level. Politicians deal with a lot of urgent problems, so the more voters that put climate change on their agenda the more seriously they will have to address it if they want to stay in power. Finally, the market is ruled by demand and supply and as a consumer you can have an impact on the demand side of the equation. Individual changes can add up to a lot and send a signal to the market that people want zero-carbon alternatives and are willing to pay for them. Such a signal can, for example, make investors more confident about new companies and companies will focus on new products targeting climate-conscious consumers.

In conclusion, we need to invest a lot more than we think in order to get to net-zero emissions. Reach out to us if you want to learn more about how we invest in emission-reducing green sectors.